The hottest topic in the financial world recently is undoubtedly the relationship between Donald Trump and Elon Musk. One moment they are allies, the next they are publicly feuding, leaving many people confused. Many readers have asked me: have they truly fallen out? And what are the implications of this drama for the investment market, especially for Tesla's (TSLA) stock price?
To answer this question, we must look beyond the surface of whether their feelings are "real" or "fake." In the game of top-tier power, all public performances are carefully calculated PR shows. Rather than a simple falling out, we may be witnessing a textbook case of political management. And for the savvy investor, this script is full of implications.
Act I: The Political Script – The Birth and Exit of "America's Qin Hui"
1. Workplace Wisdom: Good Cop, Bad Cop
First, imagine a typical office scenario. The big boss wants to implement unpopular policies like cutting expenses or laying off staff, but doesn't want to be the "bad guy" hated by employees. What does he do? He'll likely pick a deputy to take the fall, scolding them publicly in front of the whole company to send a clear message that "belts need to be tightened." The boss remains the "good guy," while the deputy takes on the "bad cop" role, executing the painful tasks and absorbing all the resentment.
Trump and Musk are both masters of the business world; this "good cop, bad cop" routine is basic practice for them.
2. Musk's Role: The "Hatchet Man" and "Qin Hui"
In a hypothetical Trump administration, Musk's role wouldn't be a policymaker but a "policy executor"—in other words, a "hatchet man." Trump's core policy is "increase revenue, cut spending, reduce debt, lower interest rates, and avoid corporate tax hikes."
- Increase Revenue: Trump himself plays the "bad cop" on the international stage, waging trade wars and angering the world.
- Cut Spending: This thankless and offensive task falls to Musk—cutting government spending and breaking the "iron rice bowls" of civil servants. This role is destined to attract the hatred of countless bureaucrats and vested interests.
Historically, any major fiscal reform requires a "villainous official" to take the blame. The most famous example in the Chinese world is Qin Hui. We all understand that it was the Song Emperor, fearful of General Yue Fei's overwhelming popularity, who truly wanted him dead. But the emperor can never be wrong. Thus, Qin Hui became the eternal villain, absorbing all the blame to protect the sanctity of the emperor and the system itself.
Musk's role is precisely that of this "American Qin Hui." He is responsible for executing all the unpopular austerity measures, drawing all the resentment onto himself. Trump is another "Qin Hui," responsible for foreign policy. The real "Emperor," then, is the American state system itself.
3. The Predicted Broken Promise and the Perfect Exit
The most critical part of this script is that the fiscal reform is destined to partially fail from the start. The US national debt is a bottomless pit; maximizing revenue and cutting spending is just a drop in the bucket. Ultimately, to cover expenses, raising corporate taxes is an almost inevitable outcome.
This "broken promise" will deeply disappoint the business community that initially supported them. If Musk were to remain in his post at that moment, he would be caught between a rock and a hard place—hated by the bureaucrats and blamed by the business world.
Therefore, the smartest move is to find a respectable "graceful exit" before the promise is broken. A public feud with the president provides the perfect script, like a self-staged show for a strategic purpose. Musk can say: "I did my best, but due to ideological differences, I was forced to leave." From then on, any subsequent failures are not his responsibility.
Act II: Investment Implications – How Should Investors React?
Okay, if we accept this script, how should we as investors interpret it? This drama can be divided into two acts, with completely different effects on Tesla's stock price.
First Half: The "Hatchet Man" in Power (Bearish for Tesla Stock)
When Musk is actually serving as the "hatchet man" in government, the risk for Tesla investors is extremely high.
- CEO Distraction Risk: This is the biggest risk. Managing several god-tier tech companies is already a monumental task; adding Washington's thorniest political issues to the mix would overwhelm even an iron man. A distracted CEO can easily lead to operational missteps, which is fatal for a company like Tesla that relies on relentless innovation.
- Political Retaliation Risk: As the "hatchet man," Musk would make countless powerful enemies. These enemies could easily "make an example" of his companies, using regulatory bodies (like the SEC, NHTSA) to subject Tesla to intense scrutiny or create obstacles in permitting and tax incentives.
- Brand Image Damage: Musk's image as a "cool tech visionary" would be tarnished by the label of a "ruthless political operator," potentially alienating a segment of Tesla's customer base.
Second Half: The "Strategic Exit" (Bullish for Tesla Stock)
When the script reaches its climax and Musk has his "public fallout" with Trump and resigns, the situation will reverse.
- CEO Returns, a "Relief Rally" in the Stock: For Tesla shareholders, the best news would be "The boss is back!" The market would interpret his departure as the "CEO returning his 100% focus to the core business." The biggest uncertainty would be removed, likely triggering a significant relief rally in the stock price.
- Political Risk Removed: Once he leaves the vortex of Washington power, Tesla is no longer a target in the political crosshairs. The company's operational risk immediately decreases.
- Personal Image Restored: He is no longer the "culprit of a failed policy" but is transformed into a "tragic hero with unfulfilled ambitions." This image is far more consistent with his brand identity than "government hatchet man" and makes it easier to win back public favor.
Conclusion: Takeaway for Investors
This "American Qin Hui" script provides us with a unique analytical framework. It reminds us that when analyzing these top-tier players, we cannot just look at the surface-level gossip.
- When Musk is mired in the political swamp, be cautious with Tesla; risk is accumulating.
- When they have their public fallout and stage their "farce," ordinary people might see chaos and crisis. But according to this script, a savvy investor might see a clear buy signal.
Because this "farce" is not the beginning of a crisis, but rather marks the end of the period of maximum political risk for Tesla. When others are panic selling, it might just be the golden opportunity to buy on the dip. Of course, all investments carry risk, but seeing through the strategy behind the game is always better than blindly chasing trends in the fog.
