TL;DR: Entrepreneurship is brutally difficult – a "nine deaths, one life" (九死一生) endeavor. Success isn't guaranteed by market size alone; it demands the right Timing (天時 - tiān shí), the right Place/Market (地利 - dì lì), and crucially, exceptional People (人和 - rén hé). Market opportunities open and close; the App gold rush, for example, has largely passed. Starting Mercury in April 2020 succeeded because the Timing aligned perfectly with urgent client needs created by the pandemic (cost savings, digital revenue) that existing providers weren't meeting. Getting the timing right is often paramount.
Let's talk about the unvarnished truth of entrepreneurship. We often hear the glamorous stories, but the reality is closer to the Chinese idiom "九死一生" (jiǔ sǐ yī shēng) – nine deaths for every one life, or a 90% failure rate.
Over the past decade, I've known many ambitious founding teams – from Hong Kong, Europe, the US – drawn to the massive potential of the China market. Eyes wide with the prospect of 1.3 billion consumers, they jumped in headfirst. Yet, so many shared the same critical flaws: lacking sufficient capital, deep expertise, the right connections, or genuine market insight. Fueled by enthusiasm but short on fundamentals, they launched their ventures.
I personally witnessed at least 50 such teams try their luck. Only one or two achieved real, sustainable success. The vast majority burned through their cash and exited within a year or two. This group included everyone from "high-spec founders" (top education, wealthy families, multiple funding rounds) to "low-spec founders" (grassroots, underfunded, running on pure passion).
Their outcomes were remarkably similar: failure. Everyone wants to be an entrepreneur, but few truly grasp the brutal odds. This leads many to start companies with excessive optimism, only to end up "paying for the lesson" (花錢買教訓).
The Crucial Difference: People (人和 - rén hé)
What separated the tiny fraction of successes from the multitude of failures? While timing and market conditions play a huge role (more on that later), the starkest difference almost always lies in the People (人和). Successful founders are fundamentally different. Their vision, strategic thinking, leadership, execution capability, and sheer level of commitment far exceed the norm.
Think back to my mentor, Mr. E. Even when his company was earning HK$100 million in annual profit, as CEO, he would fly economy on business trips, setting an example of frugality and dedication for his team. That's the kind of leadership DNA often found in those who beat the odds.
When Timing is Right: Heroes from Chaos (天時 - tiān shí)
There's another saying: "亂世出英雄" (luàn shì chū yīng xióng) – heroes emerge from chaotic times. During periods of major industry disruption or societal upheaval, opportunities abound. The barriers to entry might be lower, and success might depend less on innate genius and more on boldness and the willingness to take calculated risks ("敢博"). Fortunes can be made quickly.
However, as industries mature and social structures stabilize, those wide-open windows of opportunity close. What worked during the "chaos" phase often cannot be replicated later.
Case Study: The App Gold Rush
Consider the mobile App explosion starting around 2010. It felt like a new frontier. Yet, looking back, Hong Kong produced only one truly world-class App with global reach: LaLaMove. This highlights a key reality: most successful Apps require massive scale and a huge domestic user base to thrive initially.
This is why the US and China dominate the global App landscape (Facebook, WeChat, Amazon, Taobao, etc.) – they have the internal markets to support initial growth and network effects. Yes, there are exceptions like Spotify (Sweden) or Grab (Singapore), but their scale often pales in comparison to the US/Chinese giants. Today, almost every conceivable basic need has an App solution. That initial entrepreneurial gap in the App market is now largely closed. The timing for that specific type of venture has passed.
Our Own Journey: Timing Mercury's Launch (天時 + 地利 + 人和)
When I decided to launch Mercury Technology Solution in April 2020, the world was certainly in a state of chaos due to COVID-19. My core idea was simple: "Solve client pain points." In the business world, this generally means helping clients:
- Make More Money
- Save Money
- Provide Better Customer Experiences
The pandemic created intense, urgent needs for points 1 and 2 among our target clients. They needed digital solutions to reach customers remotely and operate more efficiently almost overnight. Crucially, the existing service providers in the market weren't fully equipped or agile enough to meet these sudden, specific demands (a gap in the Place/Market - 地利).
Seeing the opportunity (spotting the "肥肉" - juicy meat) wasn't enough; having the capability to execute ("有本事吃" - the ability to eat it) was essential. We were fortunate (Timing/Luck - 天時) to gain the strong support of two key clients early on. This gave us the breathing room to refine our offerings and build our team's capabilities ("練兵" - train the troops; developing the People - 人和). This positioned us perfectly to catch the major wave of demand for large-scale digital transformation that surged in 2021.
Could we have done the same thing back in, say, 2015-2018? I honestly believe we likely would have failed. The urgent market need wasn't there in the same way; the timing would have been wrong.
Timing Is (Almost) Everything
Success in entrepreneurship is a complex interplay of factors. You need the right idea, the right market (地利), and exceptional people (人和). But overlooking the critical importance of Timing (天時) is often fatal. Market windows open, and they close. Being too early can be just as bad as being too late.
Reflecting on our journey and observing others, the old wisdom holds true. You need the stars to align across Heaven (Timing), Earth (Place/Market), and Man (People). And very often, Timing is Everything.
九死一生 從創業看天時，地利，人和
這10年來，我認識不少到中國創業的香港，歐美創業團隊。他們看到13億人口市場看得眼紅，想要分一杯羹，於是跑到中國開公司。許多創業團隊都有一樣的毛病：無論是資本、專業、知識、人脈、洞察力都缺，但幾個人興之所至，就去創業了。
看到至少50組創業團隊，真正做成的不過一兩組。大多數的撐了一兩年不到，就蝕錢離場。這些人裡面，從高學歷、家裡有錢、拿了幾筆融資的「高配創業者」；到草根、沒錢、憑著一股熱血硬做的「低配創業者」都有。
這些人的下場都差不多──全都失敗了。人人想創業，卻沒有認知到創業本就是九死一生。造成許多創業者，抱著過度樂觀的期待開了公司，最後都落得「花錢買教訓」的下場。
而極少數成功的幾位，和失敗者之間最大的差異，還是在於人：成功創業家絕對不同於一般人，他們的眼光、戰略力、領導力、行動力、投入程度，都遠遠超越了一般人。E先生在公司年賺一億的時候，作為CEO，可以出差坐Econ，作為下屬的榜樣。
其之五：亂世出英雄
所謂「亂世出英雄」，在產業或社會轉型、動盪的時候，機會俯拾皆是，對於創業者的天賦沒那麼高要求。只要你敢博，就「有可能」抓到暴富的機會。然而，隨著社會結構逐漸穩定，過去成功的機會已經不能複製了。例如寫App.
從 2010 年移動互聯網爆發以來，香港只有一個世界級的應用誕生（LaLaMove)，這已經很能說明： APP 是一個需要規模效應，需要龐大的本地用戶支持才能夠成功的創業路徑。
現在全球多數用戶使用的APP ，幾乎都來自於美國和中國：像是 Facebook、微信、Amazon、淘寶等，其根本原因還是在於這兩國有巨大的本地用戶可以支撐。當然，有些特例像是 瑞典的 Spotify 和新加坡的 Grab，但這畢竟是特例，規模和中美的互聯網巨頭不能相比。這十年來，幾乎你能想到的需求都有 APP 能夠滿足。APP 的創業缺口（市場未被滿足需求），現在也已經差不多關上了。
當時我在2020年4月決定創業時的想法很簡單：「為客戶解決痛點」作為服務提供者，定位不外乎：
- 替客戶賺錢
- 替客戶慳錢
- 提供更好的客戶體驗
剛好在COVID-19下所有目標客戶都有強烈1及2的需求，市場上卻沒有既有的服務供應商。當然看到一塊肥肉不是本事，有本事吃才是本事。幸運是有兩位客戶大力支持才有時間去練兵及讓自己的團隊成長。也趕上了2021 的好時機，為大型客戶提供數碼轉型。
如果我在2015-2018年做一樣的事情，估計也是失敗收埸。
Timing is Everything. Respect the challenge, understand the odds, but most importantly, recognize when the time is right. Build strategically.
