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TL;DR: Hong Kong's 2025-2026 budget plan focuses on balancing fiscal discipline with economic development amid challenging global conditions. Key strategies include enhancing fiscal discipline, tax reforms, industry upgrades, and public welfare improvements. These efforts aim to reduce the deficit and bolster long-term competitiveness, especially in innovation and green finance.

Introduction

As we step into the fiscal year of 2025-2026, Hong Kong faces significant economic challenges. Over the past three years, the city has grappled with a substantial budget deficit exceeding HKD 100 billion annually. With reserves expected to drop to HKD 685.1 billion by March 2025, there is a pressing need to balance deficit control with economic growth.

Macroeconomic Background and Core Challenges

Economic Landscape

1. Current State:

• Hong Kong continues to face a "trillion-dollar deficit," necessitating a careful balance between controlling the deficit and fostering development.
• Uncertainties such as geopolitical tensions and global economic fluctuations, along with domestic issues like industrial restructuring and an aging population, require enhanced risk resilience.
• SMEs are heavily impacted by high rents and export volatility, while the financial and innovation sectors demonstrate resilience, with asset management inflows growing by 3.4 times.

Key Conflicts

• Short-term Relief vs. Long-term Fiscal Health: There is a need to shift from one-off measures (e.g., cash handouts) to structural reforms.
• Public Demand vs. Resource Allocation: An aging population increases healthcare and welfare spending, while housing and tax concerns weigh heavily on young and middle-class citizens.
• Public Expenditure Growth vs. Revenue Stagnation: Balancing revenue generation and cost-cutting while maintaining social equity is crucial.

Policy Axes and Specific Measures

Strengthening Fiscal Discipline: Prioritizing Core Expenditure

1. Public Sector Spending Adjustment:

• Streamline overlapping functions (e.g., merging regional development departments) and promote digital processes to save 3% in administrative costs.
• Freeze public servant salaries for one year, with senior officials donating 10% of their salaries to a "People's Support Fund," saving HKD 3 billion.

1. Infrastructure Project Review:

• Defer non-urgent projects, such as the Kwu Tung North cooling system (approved at HKD 13 billion), to prioritize Northern Metropolis and Greater Bay Area connectivity projects (e.g., cross-border technology parks).

Revenue Generation Strategy: Tax Reforms and Market Collaboration

1. Tax Structure Adjustment:

• Implement a luxury goods tax of 5% on cars over HKD 3 million and jewelry over HKD 500,000, generating an additional HKD 1.5 billion annually from high-spending groups.
• Introduce a capital gains tax on properties sold within three years at a 10% profit rate to curb speculation, adding HKD 2 billion in revenue.

1. Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) Expansion:

• Invite private investment in Northern Metropolis infrastructure by offering land incentives in exchange for cash subsidies, attracting international capital to participate in green finance bonds (e.g., zero-carbon building projects).

Industrial Upgrade and Economic Diversification

1. Innovation and Green Economy:

• Double research investment to 2.5% of GDP, focusing on AI, biomedicine, and hydrogen technology, and establish a "Youth Innovation Fund" of HKD 1 billion, with a 1:1 private investment match.
• Provide 20% tax credits for SMEs installing solar energy equipment (up to HKD 500,000) to promote carbon neutrality goals.

1. Silver Economy and Greater Bay Area Integration:

• Allocate HKD 500 million to create a "Silver Economy Fund" to support smart health monitoring products, and expand healthcare vouchers to grade A hospitals in the Greater Bay Area, piloting cross-border pension withdrawals.
• Collaborate with Shenzhen to establish a "Technology Industrial Park" sharing laboratory resources to reduce R&D costs.

Public Welfare and Social Stability

1. Optimizing the Social Safety Net:

• Adjust elder travel subsidies with no upper limit for those aged 65+, but increase the amount to HKD 2.5-3; set a HKD 1,000 monthly cap for ages 60-64, monitored via smart platforms to prevent abuse.
• Allocate HKD 300 million to social welfare organizations to enhance outreach healthcare services for solitary elders and trial community health center teleconsultations.

1. Youth and Middle-Class Support:

• Build 5,000 youth hostels at 60% market rent and expand the "First Home Loan" scheme with a 0.5% interest rate reduction.
• Increase the basic tax allowance to HKD 150,000, reduce the tax rate on the first HKD 500,000 of taxable income to 2%, and raise the child education expense deduction limit to HKD 120,000 per year.

Fiscal Consolidation and Execution Assurance

1. Three-Year Structural Reform Framework:

• If the deficit does not fall below 0.5% of GDP, automatically trigger the next phase of cost-cutting (e.g., reduce non-core expenditure by 1-3%).
• Exempt livelihood, healthcare, education, innovation, and green investments to ensure long-term development is unaffected.

1. Transparency and Social Participation:

• Launch an "Online Budget Forum" where citizens can prioritize expenditures (e.g., "decorative projects vs. elder welfare") and establish an independent "Fiscal Efficiency Committee" for quarterly performance reviews.

Balancing Policy Pros and Cons and Risk Management

• Risk One: Social Backlash - Adjustments to elder travel subsidies might cause public discontent, necessitating supportive campaigns emphasizing "targeted subsidies" and strengthened community communication.
• Risk Two: Economic Transition Pain - SMEs need time for digital transformation, so the government offers 50% cost subsidies (up to HKD 100,000) and enhances training to ease short-term impacts.
• Risk Three: Tax Revenue Fluctuations - Luxury tax could affect retail, so boosting tourism (e.g., Kai Tak Sports Park events) to attract high-spending tourists is recommended.

Conclusion: A Balance of Stability and Innovation

This budget replaces "flood irrigation" with "system innovation," precisely allocating resources (e.g., youth innovation, silver economy), strictly controlling fiscal discipline, and enhancing public trust through transparency. The goal is to narrow the deficit to a manageable range within three years while laying the foundation for Hong Kong's long-term competitiveness, such as its role as a Greater Bay Area hub and a green finance center, achieving the vision of "stabilizing livelihoods, promoting transformation, and building the future."