In 2025, the market conversation is dominated by the "Magnificent 7 " and the staggering, seemingly unstoppable rise of AI-related stocks. Valuations have reached levels that defy traditional logic, leading many to ask the inevitable question: Is this a bubble?
To understand the current situation, we must first recognize that the structure of this boom is fundamentally different from those of the past. Previous economic booms were built like a pyramid. This one is being built like an inverted pyramid.
The Old Model: The Pyramid
Think back to the major economic drivers of the last few decades:
- 1990s Manufacturing: The global supply chain was a pyramid. At the bottom, profits were low (e.g., simple manufacturing) , but over time, participants could expand into procurement, design, and eventually their own brands.
- Real Estate & Internet Eras: These were also pyramids. They supported massive downstream chains of contractors, material suppliers, online stores, and influencers, all of whom employed people and shared in the ecosystem.
In the pyramid model, profits were concentrated at the top, but the base was wide, creating broad employment and opportunity.
The 2025 Model: The Inverted Pyramid
Today's AI boom is different. This is an inverted pyramid, and it's defined by a self-fueling loop:
- The tech giants are "holding hands" as they rise.
- Nvidia has an explosive profit-and-loss statement because the other tech giants are all buying its chips.
- They are all buying chips based on the belief that AI can create a new, cheaper form of productivity—a new "human" that runs on electricity instead of a salary.
This creates a glaring paradox: If humans do not work, how do they earn money? If they do not earn, how do they consume? If they do not consume, who will buy the products these AI "humans" create?
The Investor's Dilemma: "Noah's Ark" or TBTF
This paradox has split the investment world. Younger investors feel they cannot afford to miss "Noah's Ark". They are operating on a "Too Big to Fail" (TBTF) mentality.
The logic is that if the AI bet fails, the Fed will be forced to step in and bail them out. This has led to a two-pronged strategy:
- Buy Tech: This is the ticket for the "Noah's Ark" first-class cabin.
- Buy Gold: This is the hedge. If the bet fails and the Fed is forced to print trillions, the dollar will be diluted, and gold (priced in dollars) will soar.
The "All-in" Gamble: Three Variables That Could Break the Pyramid
This TBTF logic, however, has critical flaws. Even veteran investors like Warren Buffett have expressed concern. US growth is almost entirely dependent on tech; without it, growth is near zero. That tech growth depends on AI, which depends on chips, which depend on a single island.
Furthermore, the idea of a "Fed put" is questionable. The relationship between investors and the Fed is not that of an elite corps and its general; it's more like allied mercenaries. The general may sound the charge, but a timely rescue is not guaranteed.
Beyond these concerns, there are three massive variables in this "All-in on AGI" game.
Variable 1: The Power Bottleneck
The immediate bottleneck is not chips; it's electricity. Microsoft's CEO has stated this publicly. Nvidia can supply the cards, but the tech giants don't have enough power to run them.
Due to America's aging infrastructure, data centers can no longer be built near talent hubs; they must be built next to new power plants. This requires building in remote areas, a process bogged down by private land rights and a multi-year construction cycle. Tech giants claim this will take two years; US media and on-the-ground reports suggest it will be four to five years.
Variable 2: The "War of All Against All"
The US government has not organized a "Manhattan Project" to centralize resources. Instead, the Tech 7 are "each for themselves".
They are hoarding chips not just to use, but to deny them to competitors, just as tech firms in the 90s hired all available engineering graduates simply to starve their rivals of talent. Now that Nvidia is selling to everyone, the new arms race is for energy.
This is a race no one can afford to lose. If one company builds AGI first, the market cap of the others will collapse. This justifies the "all-in" gamble—it's the only path forward.
Variable 3: What If They Fail to Build "God"?
The entire valuation is based on the hope of creating AGI—a "god" that can solve humanity's problems. But what if they fail? What if AGI simply requires more power than our species can generate?
If AGI fails, the game shifts to AI Applications.
This "lesser" AI is still a revolutionary, high-quality labor force. But in this arena, the US advantage evaporates. The game is no longer about the single best chip; it's about parallel computing, where quantity can overwhelm quality.
In an applications race, China's advantages become dominant:
- A stable, cheap, and abundant power grid.
- A complete manufacturing supply chain.
- A vast pool of engineers to apply the technology.
This is why Nvidia's CEO insists they must reach AGI. He knows that if the race degrades into a battle of applications, they will likely lose to China.
Conclusion: Do You Know What You're Betting On?
The 2025 AI boom isn't just a financial question; it's a structural one. The "big players" know exactly what they are gambling on. They are betting they can build a god, powered by a new grid, before their rivals do, and before the entire inverted pyramid becomes unstable.
They know the stakes. The question is, do you?
Accelerate Digitality.
