TL;DR: The Japanese election results are in. Sanae Takaichi has secured a "Total Governance" supermajority. The Japanese public has spoken, and they have chosen Strength over Ambiguity. This is a masterclass for Taiwan. The lesson? Appeasement is a failed investment strategy. Peace is only preserved when you make yourself a variable that the enemy "cannot afford to pay."
James here, CEO of Mercury Technology Solutions.
The election dust has settled here in Tokyo. Sanae Takaichi has achieved what many thought impossible: a landslide victory that grants her complete control over the Diet.
But looking past the cherry blossoms and sushi, there is a cold, strategic clarity emerging from this result that Taiwan needs to copy immediately.
The debate is no longer about diplomatic niceties.
It is about the brutal truth of the Takaichi Doctrine:
True peace is not achieved by kneeling; it is achieved by making the cost of war mathematically impossible for the aggressor.
1. The ROI of Aggression
In Taiwan (and previously in Japan), there is always a faction that suggests:
- "Don't provoke the giant."
- "Soften your stance to buy time."
From a business logic perspective, this is suicide.
This logic relies on a fatal premise: If I retreat, they will stop.
The Reality:
If an aggressor threatens you and you retreat at Zero Cost to them, you haven't bought peace. You have just proven that aggression is a High-ROI (Return on Investment) activity.
If I can get what I want by shouting, I will shout louder tomorrow.
Appeasement doesn't buy time; it accelerates the hostile takeover.
2. The "Theater" of War
Former CIA officer Glenn Carle recently analyzed the situation in Newsweek Japan.
He points out that much of the "wolf warrior" aggression we see is "Internal Propaganda Exported Externally."
When a superpower faces high unemployment and internal instability, "Finding an External Enemy" is the oldest trick in the book to save the regime.
- If Japan or Taiwan kneels in response to threats, we are effectively solving their internal political crisis for them.
- We become the "Convenient Villain" that distracts their angry populace.
Don't be a prop in their theater.
Yielding doesn't make them like you; it just makes their propaganda machine more efficient.
3. The Cold Truth of Alliances ($111 Billion Deduction)
The US recently announced a $111 Billion arms sale to the region.
That sounds like a safety net. It isn't.
Carle notes a crucial "Cold War" reality:
"You can lean on America, but in the end, you can only rely on your own country."
Alliances are not charities; they are business partnerships.
- The "Insurance" Logic: An ally will only back you if you pay your "deductible."
- If you show that you are ready to compromise sovereignty at the first sign of trouble, your value as an ally drops to zero.
- An ally's promise is only credible when you demonstrate that you are willing to fight.
4. Changing the Calculation Formula
So, what is Takaichi doing?
She isn't wasting time trying not to "anger" the neighbor.
She is changing the Calculation Formula of the enemy.
She is raising defense budgets, acquiring counter-strike capabilities, and deploying assets to the Northern Territories and the Ryukyu arc.
The Goal: To make the decision to attack "Extremely Difficult."
Peace is a math problem.
- If (Cost of War < Benefit of Conquest) $\rightarrow$ War happens.
- If (Cost of War > Benefit of Conquest) $\rightarrow$ Peace happens.
Takaichi understands that you cannot change the "Benefit" side of the equation (the enemy's desire). You can only manipulate the "Cost" side.
By making Japan "Too Expensive to Eat," she secures peace.
Conclusion: Copy the Answers
Sanae Takaichi dissolved the Lower House, gambled her career, and let the people decide.
The Japanese people responded by giving her the strongest mandate since World War II.
They chose Reality over Fantasy.
Japan has just written the test paper. The answers are right there in front of us.
Taiwan, are you going to copy the answers, or keep debating the question?
Mercury Technology Solutions: Accelerate Digitality.
