TL;DR: Sanae Takaichi’s victory in Japan was unexpected for many, largely because young voters crushed the traditional "religious vote." But beyond the headlines, this election reveals a brutal truth about international relations: There is no such thing as an equidistant triangle. You cannot play both sides. Interests are concrete, financial, and often tied to the underground economy. If you think diplomacy is just about "democracy" and "values," you are missing the dark money.
James here, CEO of Mercury Technology Solutions. Hong Kong - February 10, 2026
Last week, I had several dinners with friends discussing the election. The consensus: Sanae Takaichi’s gamble worked. She dissolved parliament and won big. But the most interesting part isn't that she won; it's how she won. The traditional "Religious Vote" (Soka Gakkai/Komeito) failed to mobilize. The younger generation, tired of stagnation, stormed the polls.
This election serves as a masterclass in understanding what "International Interests" really means. Spoiler: It’s not about friendship. It’s about Money and Leverage.
1. The Two Tracks of Influence: Trade and Gangs
To understand Japan (and Taiwan), you have to look at the Two Tracks of foreign influence.
- Track 1: The Public Economy (The Magnet Effect) For decades, China used economic incentives to seduce Japanese corporations. "Move your factory here, get cheap labor, access our massive market." This created a class of pro-China politicians (like the Hatoyama/Kan/Noda/ Ishiba administrations) whose job was to protect these corporate interests. The Turning Point: 2012. When the Japanese ambassador to China was humiliated and Japanese businesses realized the "market access" was a trap to steal their tech, the illusion shattered. Abe Shinzo came in and slammed the brakes.
- Track 2: The Underground Economy (The Yakuza) People forget that North Korea and China didn't just use diplomats; they used Organized Crime. In the late 90s and early 2000s, foreign influence in Japanese politics often flowed through the Yakuza (pachinko money, drugs, underground banking). The Clean-Up: Japan’s anti-Yakuza laws (Boryokudan Exclusion Ordinances) weren't just about crime; they were about National Security. By cutting off the gangs, Abe effectively cut off a major pipeline of foreign political funding.
2. The "Equidistant" Delusion
In Hong Kong, I constantly hear TV pundits talking about maintaining an "Equidistant Relationship" between the US and China. They draw these cute little triangles on whiteboards. "If we stay in the middle, we get benefits from both sides!"
This is IQ-80 thinking. In international relations, nobody is an NPC (Non-Player Character). You cannot just stand in the middle and expect the giants to pat your head.
- If you take American weapons but sell your soul to Chinese factories, the Americans will see you as a traitor, and the Chinese will see you as a useful idiot.
- Result: You don't get double benefits; you get Double Distrust.
3. Real Interests are Concrete
Stop talking about abstract "Democracy" or "Shared Values." Look at the Cash Flow.
- Why does a US Congressman visit Taiwan? Because Taiwan signed a contract to buy soybeans or jets from his district. He gets a photo op, his donors get money, and he gets re-elected. That is a "Good Partner."
- Why do some politicians hesitate? Look at their personal assets. If a politician has factories in Suzhou and a house in Shanghai, their "knees" will naturally bend towards Beijing. It’s not ideology; it’s Asset Protection.
4. The "Client" Mentality
The most annoying habit in China/ Hong Kong (and parts of Southeast Asia) is the "Client Mentality." People think: "I am the customer (the strategic key), so the US/China/Japan/ Taiwan must beg for my favor."
Wrong. In the Great Game, you are not the Client. You are the Terrain. If you want to be a Player, you must bring something to the table other than your existence. You need to create industries that make money for their voters.
- You want American protection? Make sure American pension funds are invested in your chips.
- You want Japanese support? Make sure Japanese supply chains depend on your factories.
Interests must be mutual, concrete, and profitable.
Conclusion: The End of the Bat
The bat in Aesop's fables tried to be a bird when it suited him and a beast when it suited him. In the end, he was rejected by both.
Japan under Takaichi has chosen a side. They stopped pretending to be a bat. The pundits in Taiwan predicting Japan's collapse are reading from a script written in Beijing. The reality on the ground is simple: Japan cleaned up its underground money, picked a team, and is now moving forward.
Stop dreaming of triangles. Pick a vector.
Mercury Technology Solutions: Accelerate Digitality.
